India’s GDP growth rate is estimated to be 7.2% in the fourth quarter of FY 22024-25: Report

New Delhi:
Due to a sharp increase in the agriculture sector and a sharp increase in Net Indirect Tax Collection, the GDP growth rate of the country is estimated to be 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2024-25. This has been said in a report released by Barclay.

The main economist Aastha Gudwani of Barclays said, “The advance estimate of crop production indicates that the agriculture sector should improve on a year-away basis. We are estimated to increase at the rate of 5.8 percent of the agricultural GVA in the fourth quarter. Its growth rate in the third quarter was 5.6 percent.”

104 lakh tonnes in the country’s grain production in 2024-25

Meanwhile, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan announced on Monday that the country’s grain production has increased by 104 lakh tonnes to 1,663.91 lakh tonnes in 2024-25, which shows an increase of 6.83 percent.

He said, “Rabi crop production in 2023-24 was 1,600.6 lakh tonnes, which has now increased to 1,645.27 lakh tonnes.”

The growth rate for the entire financial year is estimated to be 6.4 percent

Barclays estimates that due to a sharp increase in net direct tax collection, the GDP growth rate will be 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The growth rate for the entire financial year is estimated to be 6.4 percent. The boom in net direct tax collection indicates strength in manufacturing and service sector activities.

Moody’s estimated India’s growth rate to be 6.3% in 2025

Earlier, Moody’s Ratings had estimated India’s growth rate to be 6.3 percent in 2025 and said that it would increase to 6.5 percent in 2026.

Moody’s estimate is close to the IMF estimate, which in its April update has said to be 6.2 percent of India’s growth rate in 2025.

Barclays and Moody’s development estimate less than CSO

However, the development estimates of both Barclays and Moody’s are less than an estimate of 6.5 percent issued by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The CSO has said to be 7.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. Economists estimate that in the fourth quarter (January-March 2025), the country’s GDP growth rate will be between 6.4 per cent to 7.2 per cent and between 6.3 and 6.4 per cent in the entire financial year.

The ICRA has released a development estimate of 6.9 percent for the fourth quarter and 6.3 percent for the entire financial year.

ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nair said, “In the fourth quarter of FY 2024-25, the trend of personal consumption and investment activities continued to fluctuate. Some contributions in the matter of investment were also of tariffs related to tariffs. The service sector’s exports continued to increase the rate of ten points, while the export exports continued to be seen after the third quarter.”

Government figures of FY 2024-25 and fourth quarter GDP growth rate will be released on May 30.

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