New Delhi:
Retail inflation rates are expected to be below 4 percent of the RBI target in March after coming at 3.6 percent in February, due to which the central bank can cut interest rates in the next monetary policy. This information was given in the report of HSBC Research. HSBC Research said, “RBI has already started a cycle of repo rate cuts and there is a possibility of deduction of 25 basis points in the April Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which will reduce the repo rate to 6 percent.”
The report said, “Currently, the March quarter inflation rate is running less than the RBI forecast for this quarter. Also the winter crop has been good, the temperature is important in the next few weeks as the wheat crop is in the phase of filling its grain.”
The report said that the decrease in inflation of food items continued for the second consecutive month of February. The reason for this was the decline in vegetables, pulses and eggs, fish and meat prices. However, during this time prices of grains, sugar and fruits have increased.
The report said that due to the rapid rise in gold prices during February, the main inflation, which does not include food and fuel items, has increased in all kinds. However, except for gold, the main inflation also remains below the 4 percent mark annually.
The report further stated that the rupee has fallen by 4 percent against the dollar from October. However, Brent crude is expected to remain at $ 73 per barrel. In view of all these, the main inflation rate in FY 26 can be 4 percent. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had reduced the repo rate to 6.25 percent last month to 6.25 percent, which was 6.5 percent earlier. During this, he had said that inflation is decreasing and this is the RBI target of 4 percent.