GUWAHATI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday, May 29, revised its monsoon forecast for 2026, stating that rainfall over the country is likely to be 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), lower than the 92 per cent forecast issued in April.
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This is the lowest pre-monsoon forecast issued by the weather department. The agency said there is a 60 per cent probability of rainfall remaining below 90 per cent of the LPA, which it classifies as “deficient”.
The weather department also projected above-normal heat wave days across parts of the country during the season.
The IMD clarified that while it categorises rainfall as “deficient” when it falls below 90 per cent of the LPA, it does not declare drought conditions.
The department said weak El Nino conditions are expected to develop in June and may strengthen during the second half of the monsoon season.
Region-wise projections indicate that northeast India is likely to receive normal rainfall, while northwest, central and south peninsular India are expected to record below-normal monsoon rainfall.
The last time India experienced below-normal monsoon rainfall was in 2023, another El Nino year, when the country received 94 per cent of the LPA during the season.
According to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), El Nino conditions are likely to become established during the core monsoon months of July, August and September.