GUWAHATI: Early projections from exit polls suggest that the contest for power in West Bengal is heading towards a nail-biting finish, with most surveys indicating only a slender edge for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 294-member Assembly. To stake claim to government formation, any party or alliance must secure at least 148 seats.
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As multiple pollsters released their estimates, a tightly contested race between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP emerged as the dominant theme. Survey agency Matrize indicated that the TMC-led alliance could secure between 125 and 140 seats, while the BJP may gain between 146 and 161, pointing to a marginal advantage for the latter. Smaller parties are projected to remain in the single digits.
Similarly, P-Marq’s estimates placed the BJP ahead with a possible tally of 150 to 175 seats, while the TMC was projected to win between 118 and 138 constituencies. Other players were expected to secure only a handful of seats, reinforcing the perception of a BJP lead.
Chanakya Strategies exit poll indicates a clear edge for the BJP in West Bengal, projecting the party to win between 150 and 160 seats. The TMC+ alliance is estimated to secure 130 to 140 seats. The projections suggest a competitive contest, but with the BJP holding a noticeable advantage in the overall seat tally. If these estimates hold, the outcome could mark a significant shift in the state’s political landscape.
In contrast, People’s Pulse offered a sharply different outlook, suggesting a decisive victory for the TMC alliance with a projected 177 to 187 seats, while the BJP’s numbers were estimated between 95 and 110.
If these forecasts align with the final results to be declared on May 4, the outcome could potentially disrupt Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year tenure in office.
Polling for the 2026 Assembly elections was conducted in two phases, held on April 23 and April 29. The second phase covered 142 constituencies across seven districts, concluding the electoral process.
The voting exercise presented a mixed picture. While the first phase witnessed sporadic incidents of violence and unrest in certain areas, the second phase proceeded with comparatively fewer disruptions, bringing the polling process to a relatively calm close.
Past experience, however, highlights the unpredictability of exit polls. In the 2021 Assembly elections, different agencies had offered widely varying projections. CVoter had forecast a comfortable win for the TMC, while Republic-CNX predicted an advantage for the BJP. Axis My India suggested a close contest with either side capable of crossing the majority mark.
The actual results, however, defied most predictions, with the TMC registering a sweeping victory by winning 215 seats, leaving the BJP far behind at 77.
Exit polls are based on post-voting surveys and are designed to provide an early indication of electoral trends. However, they remain speculative in nature, and the definitive outcome will only be known once the votes are officially counted.